France’s newly released 2025 National Strategic Review has raised serious concerns about China’s growing military aggression in East Asia, particularly around Taiwan, warning of an increasingly dangerous and unstable regional environment. The report, as cited by Focus Taiwan, highlights repeated large-scale Chinese military manoeuvres around Taiwan in 2024 and 2025, which France views as a significant escalation in Beijing’s coercive strategy.
According to the report, these actions are part of China’s broader ambition to impose a fait accompli in the region, including the South China Sea, through both military power and hybrid tactics. These hybrid actions include cyber attacks, technological espionage, and infiltration of advanced defence sectors such as quantum computing, AI, and space systems.
The review also draws attention to growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. security guarantees to its Asian allies—particularly in the context of former President Donald Trump’s shifting foreign policy posture—which it says adds to the regional volatility.
A particularly alarming detail in the report is China’s nuclear buildup. France noted that Beijing has refused to join a moratorium on the production of fissile material and projected that China could possess 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, with that number rising to 1,500 by 2035. It also highlighted China’s ballistic capabilities, citing 310 missile launches in 2024 alone, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch aimed at sending a strategic warning to both Taiwan and the United States.
Beyond the Taiwan Strait, France has also expressed concern over Chinese interest in French overseas territories, especially New Caledonia, due to its strategic location and nickel reserves, which are vital for global high-tech industries.
Taiwan’s role as a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain was also highlighted. France views this as a major vulnerability for the world economy, warning that any conflict involving Taiwan could cause significant global economic disruption.
In response to these threats, President Emmanuel Macron has announced an acceleration in defence spending, committing an additional EUR 6.5 billion to the military budget and bringing total defence spending to EUR 64 billion by 2027, two years ahead of schedule.
The review underscores a growing consensus among Western nations that China’s strategic ambitions and military expansion represent not only a regional concern but a global security challenge.
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